tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5597906.post8873608386590037535..comments2023-08-24T23:19:59.072+02:00Comments on Opinionations: Climate Science Predictive PowerPhilip Machanickhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03164887573361181817noreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5597906.post-79705257430854929392008-04-12T02:29:00.000+02:002008-04-12T02:29:00.000+02:00I'm sick of the whole 'models need to do better ar...I'm sick of the whole 'models need to do better argument'. It comes down to simple physics, the fact that greenhouse gases absorb outgoing long wave radiation and that according to the Stephan Boltzmann equation the change in temperature is proportional to the radiation balance. More radiation out = lower temps and less radiation out = higher temps. Arrhenius did this calculation about 100 yrsChrishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09145756964646212409noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5597906.post-88057543722107571172008-04-11T04:18:00.000+02:002008-04-11T04:18:00.000+02:00In this case, the temperature range is dictated by...In this case, the temperature range is dictated by the CO_2 inputs. As for Gavin Schmidt's spin, I've seen discussion of this point at <A HREF="http://realclimate.org" REL="nofollow">RealClimate</A> but I deliberately did not go there and did the analysis myself.<BR/><BR/>Presuming by "sensitivity" you mean to doubling CO_2 (as usual), I've seen a <A HREF="http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/Philip Machanickhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03164887573361181817noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5597906.post-71957147375626385322008-04-10T17:09:00.000+02:002008-04-10T17:09:00.000+02:00I am afraid you have fallen for Gavin Schmidt's sp...I am afraid you have fallen for Gavin Schmidt's spin. <BR/><BR/>There have been hundreds of models produced to predict the future climate and inevitablly one of them got it right. Since that model was produced it has been "improved." If we re-ran these scenarios with the improved version would we get the same results? If so they are pretty poor improvements.<BR/><BR/>All the models Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com